14 Sept · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1413
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tobiasz
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1387
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 1.99· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H50-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.