14 Sept · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇵🇱Dariusz Maszczynski
ELO 1237
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Przebierala
TP
🇵🇱Tomasz Przebierala
ELO 1245
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Przebierala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.