14 Sept · 19:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Witkowski
ELO 1518
FormWLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Witkowski
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1464
FormLWWWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Linek🌟Linek covers set handicap as underdog 84% (19)
Fair odds · Witkowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)