15 Sept · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1512
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Skotniczny
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1555
FormLWLLL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 95% (20)
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H12-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-9)