15 Sept · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1492
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Skotniczny
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1555
FormLWLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H23-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-17)