15 Sept · 22:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1541
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Juszczyk
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1546
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Juszczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H10-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.