15 Sept · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1452
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skorupa
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1474
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H18-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.