15 Sept · 21:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1497
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baran
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1504
FormWWLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Michalik🌟Baran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (47)
Fair odds · Baran
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.