15 Sept · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1348
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rolak
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1311
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H41-57
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.