15 Sept · 20:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1555
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Adamus
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1556
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
🌟Marud covers set handicap as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H7-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.