16 Sept · 02:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1572
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Polok
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1610
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Szostok covers set handicap as underdog 69% (51)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.