16 Sept · 01:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1311
FormLWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1380
FormWWWWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H41-30
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-30)