16 Sept · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1572
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Szostok
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1553
FormWWLLW
52%
48%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 73% (33)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H21-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.