16 Sept · 06:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1414
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kaczmarek
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1403
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Kaczmarek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (27)
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H16-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.