16 Sept · 06:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1631
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Poliniewicz
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1608
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 73% (15)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H14-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.