16 Sept · 06:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1476
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Baran
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1479
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baran🌟Baran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (47)
Fair odds · Baran
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.