16 Sept · 05:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1516
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Michalik
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1476
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H16-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.