16 Sept · 04:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1620
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Polok
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1553
FormWWLLW
57%
43%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 73% (33)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.77· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)