16 Sept · 04:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1518
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1563
FormWWWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H18-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-12)