16 Sept · 03:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1516
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Michalik
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1479
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.