16 Sept · 03:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1572
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Szostok
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1563
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H11-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.