16 Sept · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MO
🇵🇱Michal Olbrycht
ELO 1614
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Poliniewicz
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1631
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 73% (15)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.