17 Sept · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WB
🇵🇱Witold Buczynski
ELO 1432
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1434
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Baron goes over total as favourite 66% (71)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.38· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H15-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.