17 Sept · 08:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1670
FormLLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kapik
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1598
FormLWLLL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kosmal🌟Kosmal goes over total as underdog 65% (34)
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H8-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-7)