17 Sept · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BC
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1531
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Czerwinski
FK
🇵🇱Frantisek Krcil
ELO 1503
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Czerwinski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H12-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.