17 Sept · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MO
🇵🇱Michal Olbrycht
ELO 1637
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Olbrycht
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1627
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Olbrycht
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.