17 Sept · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1588
FormWLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Nocun
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1519
FormLLWWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H9-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-5)