17 Sept · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Krystian Gudzik
ELO 1487
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mucha
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1519
FormLLWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.