17 Sept · 23:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1408
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Trela
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1371
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H16-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.