17 Sept · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1501
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krezel
AK
🇵🇱Andrzej Krezel
ELO 1541
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Krezel stays under total as favourite 65% (31)
Fair odds · Krezel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H0-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.