17 Sept · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1371
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kowalczyk
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1342
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mrugala🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.94· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H31-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.