17 Sept · 21:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1367
FormWWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1412
FormLWLWL
45%
55%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H16-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-12)