18 Sept · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1574
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
DK
🇵🇱Daniel Kostal
ELO 1564
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kostal🌟Wisniewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 19% (43)
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.35· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.