18 Sept · 13:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1404
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Paszkiewicz
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1466
FormWWWWL
43%
57%
🌟Paszkiewicz stays under total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H9-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-1)