18 Sept · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BC
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1556
FormWWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Czerwinski
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1482
FormWLWWW
58%
42%
🌟Minda goes over total as underdog 92% (12)
Fair odds · Czerwinski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H6-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-3)