18 Sept · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1679
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sklensky
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1726
FormLLLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H25-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-20)