18 Sept · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1518
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1568
FormWLLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H5-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-3)