18 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1404
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tobiasz
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1417
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.