18 Sept · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GW
🇵🇱Grzegorz Wichowski
ELO 1563
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skotniczny
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1598
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H47-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.