18 Sept · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1381
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tobiasz
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1406
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.