22 Sept · 04:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1405
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Machelski
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1350
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
🌟Machelski covers set handicap as favourite 70% (20)
Fair odds · Machelski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H27-51
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)