22 Sept · 02:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1553
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Szostok
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1512
FormWLWLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H17-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-7)