22 Sept · 02:00 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1405
FormLLWWW
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Michalik
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1506
FormWLWLW
39%
61%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~76 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
22%
3-1
15%
2-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+101
H2H58-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (58-25)