22 Sept · 01:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1379
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Myszewski
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1351
FormLLLWW
53%
47%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 71% (41)
Fair odds · Myszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.