22 Sept · 07:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1477
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kaczmarek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1487
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.