22 Sept · 06:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1345
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1373
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H19-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.