22 Sept · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1500
FormLWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Pelka
WB
🇵🇱Witold Buczynski
ELO 1430
FormLLWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H20-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-9)