22 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1500
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pelka
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1474
FormWWLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.