22 Sept · 11:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1477
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jablonski
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1465
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Jablonski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.07· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.