22 Sept · 11:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1584
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sobel
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1633
FormWWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H27-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-25)